14 thoughts on the Nokia/Microsoft deal

September 5th, 2013, 16:00 Posted By: wraggster

Tuesday would have been a great day to be a mobile CEO caught embezzling and shagging the CFO's wife.
No one would have noticed. They would all have been poring over the implications of the Microsoft/Nokia deal.
And maybe the launch of the HTC Desire 601.
No, on reflection, just the Microsoft/Nokia deal.
For those of us left hollow by the concluding of the football transfer window, this news was heaven.
We all delighted at the thought of Stephen Elop performing keepy-uppies in front of cheering Microsoft bloggers. And we waited to see whether the signing would spark a bid from Arsenal for Timo Toikkanen.
Anyhow, you've probably read loads about it.
I know I have.
And so here, two days on, are my 14 thoughts on the whole thing in no particular order.
Feel free to use them to seduce potential mates at your next speed dating evening.
1. Microsoft paid more for Skype than for Nokia
Ah, the topsy turvy logic of old media v new media. Microsoft paid $8.5bn for Skype at a time when it had revenues of $860m for the year ($1.30 per user per year). It paid $7.2bn for Nokia. Yes, Nokia is ailing. But its device sales were worth 15bn euros in 2012.
2. Nokia paid more for Navteq than Microsoft paid for Nokia
Navteq cost $8.1 billion in 2007. But its maps are very good, which leads on to…
3. New Nokia can now start selling stuff to Apple
Apple's maps sometimes tell you Luton is in the sea. Nokia's 'Here' division is widely loved. Now, the new Nokia can do business with Apple instead of trying to emulate its phones.
4. Danger, Kin...Microsoft has a terrible record in handsets
This is not the first phone company Microsoft has bought. It snapped up Danger (maker of the Hiptop/Sidekick) in 2008m and what happened to that? Not much. But what was left of Danger made the Kin – one of the most disastrous phone launches in history: it lasted 42 days before being canned.
5. Did Steve Ballmer want Nokia or not?
We probably won't know till the memoir 'I Loved That Company' comes out. But did Steve do the deal as a final flourish before quitting or quit because he didn't like it?
6. Was Elop a secret agent?
The conspiracy theorists love this. Elop was parachuted in to Nokia to cripple it so Microsoft could buy up the ruins for peanuts. I doubt it. Who would purposely de-value a business they'd want to own?
7. What happened to software being the future? Microsoft is all over hardware...
Ironic isn't it? MS built its evil empire on software – making all the money and delivering all the value in a PC purchase while Dell et al shifted boxes at tiny margins. Now, Microsoft makes Xbox, smartphones, Surface tablets…
8. Will Nokia be the only Windows Phone OEM?
Probably. Can't see why the others would continue to support WP after their contracts expire.
9. What if Nokia had gone with Android?
Imagine. Nokia's strength was always solid handset builds and global distribution. If it had allied all this to a solid Android implementation, it could be Samsung by now.
10. What happens to Asha?
No one knows for sure. Asha has been pretty successful in taking low-end smartphones to India in particular. But can it see off the challenge of Android, Firefox and nimble OEMs like Micromax?
And would MS rather bin it and do low end WinPho devices?
The PR says: "This element provides Microsoft with the opportunity to extend its service offerings to a far wider group around the world while allowing Nokia’s mobile phones to serve as an on-ramp to Windows Phone."
Inconclusive.
11. Europe is not a mobile OEM desert. We still have Alcatel!
Lots of pundits have written eulogies to Europe's phone making industry. No more Nokia. No more Ericsson. And tragically no more Sendo. So it's up to Alcatel to shove it up Apple and Samsung.
12. Did Nokia's board threaten to go with Android?
The Windows thing was not going as planned. Was it possible Microsoft paid $7bn to stop Nokia defecting to the enemy?
13. Will operator hatred of Skype kill Windows Phone?
You need operators, their subsidies and their high street shops, if you want to sell phones.
Yes, the OTTs now set the pace in mobile. But those dumb pipes still control distribution for the most part.
Don't forget Google failed when it tried to sell phones direct.
And operators still fear Skype. WinPho is struggling. The Skype connection won't make things any easier.
14. WinPho is doomed
Well, I have to place a bet. I've seen so many quotes from analysts this week saying 'on the one hand this deal is great, on the other it might not be.'
The facts are these: there may be 20-30m Windows Phones in use, but there are 250m iPhones and over 900m Android phones.
Don't get me wrong. I've used Lumias and they're good.
But WP will probably not be backed by other OEMs and Microsoft has a terrible track record in hardware. The platform lacks support from developers and from operators.
These are huge challenges. The only way to overcome them is with a fearsomely charismatic leader and a wonderfully creative design team.
I just don't see that MS has either.

http://www.mobile-ent.biz/index.php/...-deal-2/022303

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